|
Jessie Lin, DIGITIMES Research, Taipei [Tuesday 3 April 2012]
Developments in LED lighting technology are taking place at a dramatic pace, heavily influencing the LED industry chain as well as final products. Component makers continually pursue the goal of raising the luminous efficacy of LEDs, while also addressing voltages that are radically different from that of main electricity, and adopting new packaging processes such as COB. This report serves as a primer for these issues as well as highlingting breakthrough developments in terms of capacitors, heat dissipation and smart LED lighting systems. Abstract
LED lighting prices are expected to fall by 30% per year, with luminous efficacy approaching 200 lm/W by 2014. Many countries have also identified 2015 as a key milestone in their development of lighting policies, meaning that 2014 is likely to see a large-scale movement to replace traditional lighting. For example, Japan plans to raise the share of the general lighting market accounted for by LED lighting to 50% by 2015; South Korea also has a 2015 target of 30%; and China a 2015 target of 20%. The 2013-2014 period will be a crucial phase for laying the groundwork to achieve these 2015 targets; the LED lighting penetration rate is therefore forecast to hit 25.8% in 2014, with an output value of US$41.9 billion.
However, the industry has a long way to go before it can achieve those targets. Companies throughout the upstream, midstream and downstream LED supply chain are working on improving the quality of their products while reducing the costs, and Digitimes Research is keeping a close eye on the related impact on final products.
In terms of upstream LED components, manufacturers have continually pursued the goal of raising the luminous efficacy of LEDs. For example, Cree, the largest US-based LED manufacturer, had its 2W LED package products rated as high as 161 lm/W in 2011, higher than the maximum luminous efficacy of 133 lm/W for Nichia, the global LED leader by market share, and the 146 lm/W achieved by German giant Osram. However, it is Japanese manufacturer Toyoda Gosei that has positioned itself at the top of the market with the launch of a 170 lm/W LED component that delivers performance roughly two years ahead of the US DOE schedule for achieving such products. These products went on sale in early 2012.
Another challenge LED industry players are addressing is how to make LED products that are more easily used with mainstream electric grids. Most LEDs work on voltages that are radically different from that of mains electricity, resulting in a significant loss in efficiency. HV LEDs LEDs are one way of solving this problem.
In terms of LED package manufacturing processes, while COB was already in use in some sectors, falling LED prices have led more and more manufacturers to adopt it. Development efforts for COB technology have been focused on the need to increase luminous flux performance and decrease the volume of the device. Spotlights are one area where the potential of COB LEDs can be exploited, as the lack of ghosting on the subject for illumination means that optical performance is better than that of high-power LEDs.
Another type of process, which promises "freedom from binning" was developed by Philips for its Luxeon LED components. This method matches LED chips of different wavelengths with different phosphor formula in order to eliminate the different binning processes required for different LEDs. One advantage of this is that it to a large extent solves the problems of defective products and excess stocks, meaning that a much higher proportion of each batch of LED components can be used in the primary product range, i.e. LED lighting.
There have also been breakthrough developments in terms of capacitors, a key component affecting the lifespan of LED lighting products. Heat dissipation is another area where LED lighting manufacturers continue to make improvements, while on the downstream end product front, smart LED lighting systems are no longer limited to conceptual prototypes.
These various technological improvements should make a major contribution to increasing LED lighting uptake in the future, as they reduce the number of LED chips needed, reduce overall lighting costs, reduce power consumption, and improve LED usage rates.
Table of contents Introduction Chart 1: LED market size and LED lighting penetration rate, 2009-2014 (US$m) Trends in the development of LED component technology Brightness Table 1: R&D development targets for luminous efficiency and pricing of white LEDs, 2010-2020 Matching voltage Table 2: Trends in the development of LED component technology (I) Improving LED packaging Chart 2: Cost structure of various LED lighting products in 2011 Table 3: Trends in the development of LED component technology (II) Longer lifespans Heat dissipation Smarter downstream systems Upstream LED components High luminous efficacy Chart 3: Toyoda Gosei LED package components with luminous efficacy of 170 lm/W Long lifespan Chart 4: Toyoda Gosei LED packages rated at 60,000 hours HV LEDs Chart 5: Cree's 46V HV LEDs use process where chips are connected at package stage Chart 6: Seoul Semiconductor 55V HV LEDs with luminous efficiency of 140lm at 20mA COB package technology Table 4: Comparison of COB LED packages and high power LED packages Chart 7: Toyoda Gosei's COB package products do not suffer from ghosting Freedom from binning Chart 8: Advantages of Philips LEDs Chart 9: Principles of Phillips' "freedom from binning" LED production process Midstream LED modules Table 5: Trends in midstream technologies for LED lighting Long lifespan Chart 10: Seoul Semiconductor Acrich 2 modules have lifespan of 50,000 hours Chart 11: Seoul Semiconductor's Acrich 2 product range Table 6: Comparison of Acrich 2 bulbs with other LED light bulbs Chart 12: Improvements planned for the Acrich 3 Improved color rendering and higher efficiency Chart 13: Osram Brilliant Mix LED lighting allows for adjustable brightness and color temperature Table 7: Osram Brilliant Mix uses different combinations of LED components to produce different color temperatures Peripheral components and lighting products Table 8: Development trends in midstream and downtream LED lighting technologies Solid state capacitors for LED Chart 14: Development of first 160V, 40,000-hour solid-state capacitor Table 9: Comparison of electrolytic and solid-state capacitors Table 10: Overview of product development for Japan's major capacitor makers LED heat dissipation materials Chart 15: Products suitable for use with Panasonic's heat-dissipating substrate materials Chart 16: Cost comparison for Panasonic heat-dissipation substrates and aluminum substrates Chart 17: Specifications for Panasonic Ecool R-1586 and R-1787 heat-dissipating substrates Chart 18: Specifications of Panasonic's Ecool-F flexible heat-dissipating substrate LED smart lighting systems Chart 19: NetLED is selling the first smart LED lighting system controllable from the cloud Table 11: LED tube light specifications for NetLED System Chart 20: Comparison of power consumption for fluorescent tubes, LED tube lights, and LED tube lights with a smart lighting system Japan LED light bulb market and mainstream specifications Japanese LED light bulb market LED products as a proportion of overall light bulb sales in Japan before and after the March 2011 earthquake Chart 21: Japanese LED light bulbs sales and share of overall light bulb market before and after the March 2011 earthquake (k units) Chart 22: Pre-earthquake forecast for Japan light bulb market by technology, 2008-2013 (m units) Chart 23: Post-earthquake forecast for Japan light bulb market by technology, 2009-2015 (m units) Chart 24: Mainstream LED light bulb specifications and prices in 2012 as seen in markets in Japan Table 12: Major Japan manufacturers' LED light bulb specifications and prices in 2012 (JPY) LED lighting players push Zhaga standard Advantages of Zhaga lighting interface standard Chart 25: Zhaga's proposed design concept for a new form of LED lighting Chart 26: Potential advantages and disadvantages of Zhaga interface standards Zhaga membership Chart 27: Comparison of Zhaga interface standards and non-Zhaga standards Chart 28: Zhaga's membership numbers and key members, January 2010 to December 2011 Chart 29: Analysis of Zhaga members by industry sector Zhaga passes four LED lighting interface standards Chart 30: Formulation process for Zhaga standards Chart 31: Current and future Zhaga interface standards
|
