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Benson Wu, DIGITIMES Research, Taipei [Wednesday 14 November 2012]
With the Long Term Evolution (LTE) standard continuing to develop, international differences in plannings and frequency allocation timetables have resulted in different frequency bands being used in different countries. The China-led TD-LTE standard's greater efficiency in terms of frequency spectrum usage has attracted the attention of carriers in a number of other countries. Digitimes Research projects that the global number of TD-LTE users will reach 97.5 million by 2016, accounting for 23% of all LTE users globally. Abstract 
2012 is the most important year in the history of the evolution of the Long Term Evolution (LTE) standard. According to the most recent figures from GSA (Global mobile Supplier Association), 96 commercial LTE networks were already in operation across 46 countries as of September 2012, including 11 commerical TDD-LTE networks. Major global players have already announced wide-ranging support for LTE technology and development, with the result that LTE is already becoming the mainstream global technology for 4G networks. Examples include carriers such as Verizon, AT&T and NTT DoCoMo; brand device and equipment makers such as Samsung and Ericsson; and chip suppliers such as Qualcomm.
However, international differences in plannings and frequency allocation timetables have resulted in different frequency bands being used in different countries. The China-led TD-LTE standard's greater efficiency in terms of frequency spectrum usage has attracted the attention of carriers in a number of other countries. For example, Softbank, Japan's number three carrier, announced that it would offer commercial TD-LTE services from the first half of 2012, and has already garned nearly 200,000 users in the space of five months. China Mobile has expanded trial networks into a total of 13 cities in 2012, covering a population of around 100 million. As WiMAX users switch over and LTE gains momentum globally, Digitimes Research projects that the global number of TD-LTE users will reach 97.5 million by 2016, accounting for 23% of all LTE users.
TD-LTE equipment faces the same challenge as LTE equipment - namely that carriers are starting to switch to using Wi-Fi offload solutions to carry much of the burden of data service traffic. Wi-Fi equipment is easy to deploy, physically smaller and costs little, helping carriers to reduce data service costs. This is in turn forcing TD-LTE/LTE equipment makers to create smaller, cheaper products that will encourage carriers to continue using LTE solutions, rather than switching to Wi-Fi.
As increasing numbers of new, China-based players enter the market, and Wi-Fi threatens to replace LTE for some data services, Digitimes Research projects that competition in the TD-LTE equipment market will remain extremely intense in the short term at least. Over the medium term, once some equipment makers drop out of the market, or TD-LTE equipment becomes small enough and cheap enough to compete more effectively, the level of competition in the market is likely to ease off somewhat.
Table of contents Global commercial LTE networks North America Europe Asia Chart 1: Global commercial LTE deployments, 2012 Commercialization of TD-LTE SoftBank in Japan Bharti Airtel in India STC, Mobily in Saudi Arabia SKY in Brazil NBN in Australia Hi3G, Aero2 in Europe Chart 2: Development of global commercial TD-LTE networks Spectrum trends relating to LTE Global use of FD/TD LTE spectrum Chart 3: Use of radio-frequency spectrum in different geographic regions Apple iPhone 5 with LTE capability affecting spectrum planning Chart 4: Available frequency bands for LTE version of iPhone 5, by geographic region Chart 5: LTE version of iPhone 5; available mobile operatorsby region SoftBank TD-LTE network developments Development of Japan's next-generation mobile technologies Table 1: Japan mobile carriers development of next-generation technologies, 2012 SoftBank TD-LTE progress - AXGP Chart 6: Japan AXGP TD-LTE subscribers and use of devices, 2012 Development of Japan 4G mobile technology and SoftBank network Use of idle spectrum with improved spectral efficiency Connecting Japan 4G spectrum to the world Chart 7: Major Japan mobile operators: Frequency bands and spectrum allocations Chart 8: SoftBank use of spectrum Softbank development of FD/TD LTE dual-mode network Chart 9: SoftBank FD/TD-LTE network deployment China TD-LTE mobile network development China mobile user base Chart 10: 2G, 3G mobile user base in China, 2007-12 Chart 11: Mobile voice/talk time in China, mobile data traffic through China Mobile, 2007-2012 China mobile Internet user behavior Chart 12: China mobile user behavior analysis, 2007-11 Chart 13: Usage of Wi-Fi capable handsets in China and other major countries, 2011 China Mobile TD-LTE trial network POC and verification (December 2008-September 2009) Technical and environmental testing (September 2009-June 2010) Phase 1 trial (December 2010-September 2011) Phase 2 trials (February-June 2012) Trial network expansion paves way for commercialization Chart 14: China TD-LTE trial network: Development milestone China TD-LTE trial network development Cities with dense network of web coverage Trial network expansion Opportunities seen in IoT and Smart City Table 2: China Mobile TD-LTE trial network planning China Mobile development of converged 2G/3G/4G/WLAN network Chart 15: China Mobile plans for converged 2G/3G/4G/WLAN network Development of TD-SCDMA: Orientation unclear Challenge in converged network deployment China 4G development strategy analysis TD-LTE needs to attract more industry resources The promotion of TD-LTE network worldwide TD-LTE industry development - A clear message Chart 16: China Mobile 4G mobile network development TD-LTE user base growth forecast China Mobile unable to leverage its role as pioneer Availability of terminal devices limited FD-LTE favored by global major operators Chart 17: Global TD-LTE market development, 2010-2016 (m users) Development of TD-LTE industry China's past development of technical standards was limited Chart 18: Major trends in mobile telecoms technology standards Table 3: Homegrown China technical standards Imitating the South Korean strategy of compromise WiMAX ecosystem looks for ways out Continuation of TD-SCDMA Comparing China's presence in LTE and TD-LTE patents Chart 19: Distribution of LTE patents between major manufacturers Chart 20: Distribution of TD-LTE patents between major manufacturers China projected to increase patent presence Trend toward multi-mode and low-priced products Chart 21: Scope of application for TD-LTE chips TD-SCDMA/TD-HSPA+ upgraders China-based chip makers new to the sector Firms that attach a high degree of importance to the China market Firms that are promoting and extending WiMAX Chart 22: Types of TD-LTE chip manufacturers Future trends in the TD-LTE chip market Single-mode technology to spearhead TD-LTE Multi-mode will be the focus of the market Chart 23: Multi-mode TD-LTE chips are projected to be more marketable in long term Moving toward lower prices Increased uptake Coverage costs Table 4: Frequency range differences between TD-LTE and LTE Patent distribution and target markets Competition based on product differentiation is still possible Competition in the TD-LTE carrier equipment market heats up Chart 24: Five force analysis of TD-LTE equipment market Compatibility as first priority for TD-LTE equipment Large-scale TD-LTE equipment manufacturers Few WiMAX manufacturers are investing in TD-LTE Chart 25: Carrier equipment manufacturers' expansion into different technologies Challenges for TD-LTE base station makers Chart 26: Solution using Wi-Fi to share data traffic loads Conclusion
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