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Taiwan notebooks – 4Q 2012
Joanne Chien, DIGITIMES Research; Joseph Tsai, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 30 January 2013]
Taiwan notebook shipments increased 2.5% sequentially but decreased 3% on year to reach 43.69 million units in the fourth quarter of 2012.
Table of contents

Introduction

- Taiwan notebook shipments increased 2.5% sequentially but decreased 3% on year to reach 43.69 million units in the fourth quarter of 2012.

- Taiwan makers are expected to ship 38.74 million notebooks in the first quarter of 2013, down 11.3% sequentially and 8.7% on year.

NOTE: Unless otherwise indicated, all figures and tables in this report refer to output from Taiwan makers. Traditional notebooks refer to notebook models with 12-inch and larger screens, while netbooks refer to notebook models with screens smaller than 12-inch

Chart 1: Notebook shipments, 4Q11-1Q13 (k units)

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

Chart 2: Taiwan's share of worldwide notebook shipments, 4Q11-1Q13 (k units)

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

- Taiwan's notebook shipments dropped 3% on year in the fourth quarter of 2012 due to Windows 8's failure in attracting consumers, netbooks' quick disappearance from the retail channels, and growing competition from tablets, such as entry-level tablets from Google/Asustek Computer, Apple and Amazon However, the shipment volume still represents a sequential growth, thanks to significant sales for entry-level Windows 7 notebook models and year-end shopping promotions.

- Weak notebook demand and seasonal factors will significantly impact Taiwan's notebook shipments in first-quarter 2013, with the volume expected to drop 11.3% sequentially.

- Worldwide notebook shipments will see a 10% drop sequentially in the first quarter of 2013.

Traditional notebooks

Chart 3: Traditional notebook* shipments, 3Q11-4Q12 (k units)

*Note: Traditional notebooks are notebook models with screens larger than 12-inch.
Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

- Taiwan's traditional notebook shipments (the volume excluding netbooks) grew both on quarter and on year.

- As Samsung continued to increase its notebook outsourcing to Taiwan makers, Taiwan's share of global traditional notebook shipments remained above 90% in the fourth quarter of 2012

Chart 4: Taiwan's share of worldwide traditional notebook* shipments, 3Q11-4Q12 (k units)

*Note: Traditional notebooks are notebook models with screens larger than 12-inch.
Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

Netbooks

Chart 5: Netbook* shipments, 3Q11-4Q12 (k units)

*Note: Netbooks are notebook models with screens smaller than 12-inch.
Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

- Taiwan's netbook shipments dropped further to only around two million units in the fourth quarter and major netbook brand vendors are all set to quit the netbook market.

Chart 6: Taiwan's share of worldwide netbook* shipments, 3Q11-4Q12 (k units)

*Note: Netbooks are notebook models with screens smaller than 12-inch.
Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

Brand vendors

Chart 7: Notebook shipments to top-11 brands, 4Q11-1Q13 (k units)

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

- Hewlett-Packard (HP) and Dell both increased their orders to Taiwan makers in the fourth quarter of 2012 in response to demand from year-end holiday shopping.

- Asustek is phasing out its netbook product line, devoting effort instead to its new low-price touchscreen-enabled VivoBook tablets. The new tablets are expected to squeeze demand for its other product lines.

- After aggressive adjustments to its inventory level, Toshiba expanded its orders to Taiwan makers in the fourth quarter of 2012 by about 12%.

- Demand for Apple's 15-inch Retina Display-based MacBook Pro started to slow down; the 13-inch MacBook Pro eroded some of the demand for the same-size MacBook Pro Air. Apple's overall notebook orders in the fourth quarter of 2012 were down slightly on quarter.

- Despite weak PC demand in China – Lenovo's domestic market on which it has long relied for sales growth – the vendor still raised its notebook orders in the fourth quarter of 2012 due to increased sales from other markets.

- In the first quarter of 2013, HP will significantly reduce its notebook orders to Taiwan makers due to its excessive inventory. The company's recent business reorganization is also expected to undermine its order placements.

- Rumors about Dell looking to delist from the US stock market may deter its enterprise clients from placing orders, and therefore the vendor's orders to Taiwan makers may be affected.

Chart 8: Shipment share by brand, 4Q11-1Q13

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

Chart 9: Traditional notebook shipments to top-10 brands, 3Q11-4Q12 (k units)

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

Chart 10: Traditional notebook shipment share by brand, 3Q11-4Q12

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

Chart 11: Netbook shipments to major brands, 3Q11-4Q12 (k units)

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

Chart 12: Netbook shipment share by brand, 3Q11-4Q12

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

CPUs

Chart 13: Notebook shipments by CPU, 4Q11-1Q13 (k units)

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

Chart 14: Notebook shipment share by CPU, 4Q11-1Q13

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

- Since most brand vendors have no plan to release new notebook products in the first quarter of 2013, Intel- and AMD-based notebook models' shares of shipments will remain similar to those in previous quarters.

Chart 15: Traditional notebook shipments by CPU, 3Q11-4Q12 (k units)

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

Chart 16: Traditional notebook shipment share by CPU, 3Q11-4Q12

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

Screen sizes

Chart 17: Notebook shipments by screen size, 4Q11-1Q13 (k units)

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

- Taiwan's notebook shipments to the 12-inch and below segment will drop to only around 2.4 million units in the first quarter of 2013, much lower compared to the volumes in previous quarter, as vendors phase out netbook models.

- Strong entry-level notebook demand during year-end 2012 allowed Taiwan's notebook shipments to both the 14-inch and 15-inch segments to grow in the fourth quarter of 2012. The two sizes are the most popular specifications for entry-level models.

- Taiwan's shipments to the 13-inch segment will drop the least among mainstream-size segments in the first quarter of 2013 due to Apple's strong 13-inch notebook orders.

Chart 18: Notebook shipment share by screen size, 4Q11-1Q13

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

Chart 19: Traditional notebook shipments by screen size, 3Q11-4Q12 (k units)

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

Chart 20: Traditional notebook shipment share by screen size, 3Q11-4Q12

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

Makers

Chart 21: Notebook shipments by maker tier, 4Q11-1Q13 (k units)

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

Chart 22: Notebook shipment share by maker tier, 4Q11-1Q13

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

Chart 23: Traditional notebook shipments by maker tier, 3Q11-4Q12 (k units)

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

Chart 24: Traditional notebook shipment share by maker tier, 3Q11-4Q12

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

Chart 25: Top-6 makers' shipments, 4Q11-1Q13 (k units)

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

- Quanta Computer and Pegatron Technology were the only two top-six notebook makers that saw sequential shipment drops in the fourth quarter of 2012. Quanta's shipment dropped because of declines in orders from Apple, while Pegatron was impacted by weak orders from Asustek.

- Increases in orders from Dell, Lenovo and Samsung helped Compal Electronics achieve growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 despite declines in orders from HP, Acer and Asustek.

- Inventec had the strongest shipment growth among the top-6 makers at 20% thanks to expanded orders from HP and Toshiba.

- Although Dell placed less orders with Wistron in the fourth quarter of 2012, the ODM still achieved shipment growth due to slight increases in orders from HP, Lenovo and Sony.

- In the first quarter of 2013, Quanta's shipments will drop further because of weakening orders from Apple and Asustek.

- Meanwhile, both Inventec and Foxconn Electronics (Hon Hai Precision Industry) will be impacted by weaker orders from HP.

Annual shipments

Chart 26: Taiwan and worldwide notebook shipments, 2008-2012 (k units)

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

- The global notebook market suffered its first-ever annual shipment drop in 2012.

Chart 27: Taiwan and worldwide netbook shipments, 2008-2012 (k units)

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

- Global netbook shipments reached around 16 million units in 2012, dropping to a level similar to that of 2008 due to competition from tablets.

Chart 28: Notebook shipments by maker, 2009-2012 (k units)

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

- Pegatron enjoyed an 11.3% on-year shipment growth in 2012 mainly due to new orders from Toshiba and it had the best performance among the Taiwan-based makers.

Chart 29: Worldwide notebook shipments to top-10 brands, 2010-2012 (k units)

Source: Digitimes Research, January 2013

- Taiwan's shipments to Lenovo were only about two million units less than those to HP in 2012, showing the China-based vendor's ambition to become the number-one vendor.

- Acer remained as the third-largest client of Taiwan makers in 2012, helped mainly by its strong orders in the first half.

- Dell still stayed at fourth and led Asustek by only less than 500,000 units.

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