Chih-Kai Cheng, a friend of mine in venture capital business in the US, has remarked that the ethnic Chinese in Silicon Valley have a broad vision but lack practical experience in resource integration. Taiwanese are pragmatic and reliable but sometimes act without visions. People from China think big and bold but often end up with biting off more than they can chew.
Electric vehicles have strong potential in the Indian market. But not everyone in the South Asian country is convinced that a market where about 22 out of 1,000 people own a vehicle is ready for the EV revolution yet, according to DIGITIMES' correspondent in India. In India's mobile telecom market, intense price competition has drastically changed its landscape, with the top-3 carriers dominating over 90% of the market. In the semiconductor sector, AMD is expected to be the first adopt TSMC's SoIC technology fot its HPC chips.
Micron is stepping up expansions of its production capacity, with plans to install EUV tools at its Taiwan fabs in 2024. In China, smartphone shipments to the domestic market slipped 5.4% in September, with local brands accounting for over 90% of the shipments. And supply side issues, such as component shortages, may hinder 5G smartphone shipment growth globally in 2022.
Automotive IDMs have already told their clients that their chip prices will go up by 10-20% starting 2022 amid rising compoents and materaisls costs. Foundry quotes have been rising, but they are expected to increase less sharply next year with near-term demand for IC components to remain robust. Foundry houses' race to advance process technologies is promising strong growth for EUV tool vendor ASML.
Samsung's new NAND flash production capacity is coming, which is likely to create oversupply and exacerbate price falls for the memory. Apple has been relyng on Taiwan-based ODMs for producing its Mac devices, but it reportedly is looking to outsource portions of the Mac production to Chinese makers. But Taiwan's IC substrate suppliers have reportedly entered Apple's supply chain for new Mac chips.
Foxconn has been aggressive in expanding its presence in the EV sector, and it is looking to promote localized EV production in various regions to tap respective markets. Robust orders for HPC chips from AMD and Nvidia are expected to drive sales growth at TSMC in 2022. Quanta Computer's server manufacturing facilities in Taiwan have reached almost full production capacity and will open a new plant in Thailand next year to produce server motherboards.
Makers in Apple's supply chain have seen no major changes to orders for iPhone 13 devices despite speculation about the US vendor looking to cut production for the new smartphones. The memory sector is entering a period of correction, with commodity DRAM prices likely to fall 15-20% in first-quarter 2022. Rising components, production and logistic costs are heaping pressure on notebook vendors.
The car industry has been plagued by component shortages, and automotive IC shortages are likely to last till at least 2023. TSMC's plan to build a mature process fab in Japan comes as good news for a semiconductor sector yearning for more capacity supply. And PanelSemi CEO Ting Chin-lung is making efforts to materialize his concept of "panel semiconductor."
The development structure of the Indian motor vehicle industry is related to its traditional industrial environment. We can come up with the structure of the Indian industry from the distribution areas of the motor industry. The development of the modern industry has evolved from its traditional path. There are three major clusters in the north, west, and south respectively.
TSMC has narrowed its revenue growth outlook this year to 24%, based on its forecast of 4.5% sales rise at the midpoint of the foundry house's latest guidance for fourth-quarter 2021. Despite a media report's claims that Apple is cutting its production goals for iPhone 13 seies for 2021, components suppliers have disclosed hey have not seen any reductions in orders from the client for the new smartphones. In China, manufacturers are making contingency plans to cope with power restrictions, which they expect will become a long-term policy of the country.
India's annual sales of two-wheelers once exceeded 20 million units but dropped to about 15 million units in 2020 due to the impact of the pandemic. Hero was the top motorcycle brand, with sales of 4.73 million units followed by Honda's 3.06 million units. Homegrown manufacturer, Chennai-based TVS, was in third place with 1.8 million units, and Bajaj with 1.42 million was fourth. Japan's Suzuki and Yamaha both have deployments in India. These companies are still in their inception stages of investment in electric vehicles (EV) except Hero Group, who invested in Hero Electric to capitalize on business opportunities for electric motorcycles.
DRAM will continue to see bit growth in 2022, but the growth momentum will be weaker than this year's. Device makers are already slowing down purchases of DRAM, reflecting the disappointing end-market demand. Backend houses in Taiwan are seeing orders from clients who have had to switch production from Southeast Asia due to COVID hitting IDMs' fabs in the region. HDI board makers are expecting strong sales in fourth-quarter 2021, although power cuts in China and chip shortages remain concerns.
Before studying India's electric vehicle (EV) market, you may need to understand the Indian modes of transportation. According to NSSO, 62.3% of Indians prefer public transport such as buses and trains, and 46.7% of Indians use three-wheeled tuk-tuk. During weekdays 15.6 % of Indians regularly take trains while 9.8 % of them take a taxi. We can observe the future means of transport for Indians from the perspectives of "new technology" and "mode of operation".
Notebook ODMs may not see strong shipment growth in traditional peak season in second-half 2021, but it does not mean that the notebook market is heading for a downturn. Samsung expects to move its 3nm GAA process to volume production in first-half 2022, but it remains to be seen whether the early start will enable it to beat TSMC in the segment. Meanwhile, Taiwan's power management IC vendors have reported strong sales for the third quarter.
Who is the leader in the Indian car market? Suzuki accounts for almost 50% market share of the world's fifth-largest market of 2.71 million cars per year. Suzuki is not a top-tier brand in Japan. The key factor of Suzuki's success in India is that Suzuki Motor embraces a one-stop-shopping service strategy for the Indian market from car manufacturing to maintenance, insurance, and driving training courses. On top of that, its integration in the upstream and downstream of supply chains along with half a century of long-term in-depth operation in the Indian market is unrivaled. Perhaps owing to its satisfactory operation, Suzuki Motor is not active in the electric vehicles (EV) market.
Notebook ODMs may experience a weak fourth quarter of 2021 with their feeble sales in China during the National Day holiday and possible low sales momentum during the year-end holidays in Europe and North America. Largan Precision also saw its gross margin hit the lowest in 25 quarters, but the percentage was still well above 59%. PCB maker Zhen Ding is also prepared to start making BT and ABF substrates in China in 2022.