Zhu Gongshan, chairman and CEO of GCL-Poly, China's leading polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) solar wafer maker, indicated that cost declines throughout the solar supply chain will ease the impact from subsidy cuts, and demand in 2011 should reach 20GWp. However, the government needs to give solar companies time and space to make adjustments before slashing incentives, Zhu said, adding that a solar wafer shortage will continue into the first half 2011.
With the governments of major European markets such as Germany, Italy, Czech Republic and France likely to cut subsidies in 2011, solar industry forecasts are mixed. Zhu expects global solar demand to rise 30% from 15GWp in 2010 to around 20GWp for 2011.
Huge potential in the US, Japan, South Korea, India, South Africa and China should continue to support photovoltaic (PV) demand in 2011, Zhu said. Though the solar supply chain is strong enough to weather the incentive reductions, he hopes that governments will carefully evaluate the impact on solar companies and provide sufficient time and space for operation adjustments.
GCL-Poly will produce 17,000 metric tons (MT) of poly-Si in 2010, which is equivalent to about 3GWp of solar cell capacity. Its solar wafer production should reach 3.5GWp and the company recently announced that all new wafer capacity is now fully operational.
A solar wafer shortage will persist into the first half of 2011, Zhu said, noting that though more expanded capacity is scheduled to come online in the second half, elimination of less competitive players should continue and hence, those offering quality and cost-effective products will enjoy strong demand.
Despite tight supply, GCL-Poly is expected to cut solar wafer quotes in the first half of 2010 to show solar cell clients that it is committed to long-term and mutually beneficial relations, according to industry sources.
Article translated by Willie Teng
