Supply chain
Global notebook shipment CAGR at 0.9% in 2020-2025, says Digitimes Research
Jim Hsiao, DIGITIMES Research, Taipei

Global notebook shipments are forecast to rise at a CAGR of 0.9% from 2020 to 2025, according to Digitimes Research's latest five-year forecast for the notebook industry.

Stay-at-home activities in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic have been driving robust shipment growth for the notebook industry in 2020. The pandemic is likely to linger in 2021, with stay-at-home activities becoming the new normal to continue sustaining notebook shipments. But notebook shipments in 2021 are expected to stay flat only from a year ago due to the weakening global economy and reduced stimulus subsidies.

With lockdowns eased, shipment momentum in 2022 and 2023 is expected to weaken, but competitions among CPU platforms will become fiercer. Notebooks based on AMD's 5nm processors and Arm-based solutions are expected to be more competitive in price/performance ratios.

The notebook market will see a new round of replacement demand in 2024 and 2025.

Chromebook shipments are expected to surpass 30 million units in 2021 thanks to demand from the global education segment and emerging markets. The Chrome-based devices are also expected to see stronger shipment growth than Windows-based consumer and enterprise models, Digitimes Research's forecast figures show.

With AMD, Apple, MediaTek and Qualcomm all developing processors for notebooks, Intel CPUs' share of worldwide notebook shipments is expected to slip below 70% in 2021. The proportion of notebooks featuring touchscreen functions will also break 20% of overall volumes in 2021 as the functionality is a standard specification for Japan's education procurement projects and Microsoft's Surface series products.

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