During the Industrial Age, the US was the world's leader in the automotive industry, but that is no longer the case now. In 2018, 370,000 units of electric cars were sold in the US, but the sales in China were as high as 1.255 million units.In addition to the market, China-based Tencent, despite having investments in Tesla, saw its affiliate Xiaopeng Motors Technology launch an electric car with a price/performance ratio far better than that of the US-based car maker.Sharing a similar fate to that of the smartphone industry, the electric car industry will not be dominated by US-based makers, as China-based ones have been expanding their presence.Xiaopeng's release of an electric car priced a lot lower than Tesla's at the end of 2018 prompted Tesla to significantly cut its price to compete. However, trying to compete against China makers in pricing where they have the most advantages is like walking a tightrope. Even if Tesla managed to win at the end, it would not be unscathed.It is not just about the competitiveness of the two countries' automakers alone. Of the worldwide top-10 car-use battery makers, six of them are based in China. These makers are not only producing batteries locally, they also have production lines in Europe to cater to Mercedes-Benz and BMW. China-based electric car and battery makers also have entered South Korea and have been competing fiercely against local automotive and battery makers.Since 2012, Korea-based automotive maker Hyundai has seen its operating profits slip every year. The company had profits of nearly US$8 billion in 2012, but the amount dropped to a record low at US$2.4 billion in 2018. If the car making industry does not see a new business model, second-tier automakers will all suffer.The electric car and Internet of Vehicle (IoV) markets seem promising, and most of Japan's first-tier component makers are focusing on China as their main target. However, there are risks in the China market. In January 2019, China's car sales slumped 15.8% on year as a result of an economic downturn.Whether China's economy is able to grow steadily will significantly affect sales in the local car market. The stronger China's spending power is, the faster it can become the leader worldwide.(Note: This is part of a series of articles by Digitimes president Colley Hwang on the latest developments of the IT industry in the wake of the US-China trade war.)

The PC market used to cater mainly to white-collar workers, with manufacturers relying mostly on HP and Dell. The traditional PC and handset assembly sector remains a stable supply chain with the US still being the largest market. Currently, Taiwan still accounts for 80% of the worldwide notebook manufacturing, and for servers, the percentage is even higher at 94%. With the business opportunity of datacenter growing rapidly, Taiwan makers' manufacturing bases in Taiwan are still the best places for their Internet service provider partners.If the US-China trade war worsens, more ICT product manufacturing in China is expected to shift back to Taiwan or elesewhere.Apple's smartphones are all manufactured by Taiwan-based companies such as Foxconn, Pegatron and Wistron, while smartphones from Samsung and Huawei also see some of their components supplied by Taiwan makers. Wistron has even cooperated with Apple to establish a new factory in India.With the rise of the mobile communication era, demand was coming from every industry and consumers of all ages, generating more business opportunities and expanding the market beyond white-collar workers. However, the market was starting to see domination by a few brands with Apple taking over two thirds of all profits from the market. Samsung at its peak had 75% of profits coming from the smartphone business. For the other smaller vendors, the struggle was to keep operations from incurring losses.The situation began to change in 2018 as Apple and Samsung were unable to come up with more innovations for their smartphones. China-based brands started to take center stage. At the moment, seven of the worldwide top-10 smartphone brands are based in China and these players have dominated the smartphone markets in emerging countries by flooding them with multiple models.China brands' strategy focuses on expanding market share, which is expected to give Huawei a chance to surpass Samsung to become the largest smartphone brand worldwide in the second half of 2019.Huawei and Xiaomi are both expected to become leading players in the upcoming 5G era. In addition to launching its 5G smartphones at about the same time as its top-tier competitors, such as Samsung, Huawei is also a major force in the 5G base station sector. Huawei is considered a necessary partner for almost any country deploying 5G networks.Since 5G technologies not only present business opportunities, but also fuel data security concerns, the US government believes 5G would provide the best chance for China to break its global dominance, and therefore has been taking rather aggressive actions such as banning supply to ZTE and having Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou arrested. Apparently the US will not sit idly in the face of China's growing ambition to fully control the 5G market.In December 2018, South Korea claimed to have become the first nation in the world running a commercialized 5G network. The president of Korea-based telecom carrier LG Uplus, which has been the fastest in making 5G base station deployments in the country, previously stated that using Huawei's 5G base stations would not jeopardize national security. But its competitor, Korea Telecom (KT), responded by announcing that it would follow the US government's suggestions and would not adopt any 5G solutions from Huawei.The two carriers' completely different attitudes about Huawei's equipment show that telecom carriers in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan will all also need to take sides at some point when it comes to buying 5G equipment.In addition to the concerns about data security, some companies in the West are also wary of Huawei's strong patent portfolios for 5G technologies. US companies have relied on patents to dominate business opportunities, but the tide may be turning as China grows bigger and bigger in terms intellectual property.(Note: This is part of a series of articles by Digitimes president Colley Hwang on the latest developments of the IT industry in the wake of the US-China trade war.)

The worldwide ICT industry is formed by supply chains that cooperate with each other. Prior to 2000, the ecosystem was structured simply in linear partnerships between upstream and downstream sectors with US-based first-tier vendors dictating the standards and specifications, and outsourcing manufacturing orders to their Taiwan- and Korea-based partners. At present, the ICT supply chain that has worked for 30 years continues to serve as the key foundation of the global ICT industry.Of the worldwide top-10 ICT companies that Digitimes identifies, six of them are from the US, two from China, one from South Korea (Samsung Electronics) and one from Taiwan (TSMC). In the world of connectivity, Metcalfe's Law tells us that the more nodes a network has, the higher its value. China's demographic dividend and the US leadership both show us the applicability of Metcalfe's Law in the ICT world.TSMC, which has a market value of US$177 billion, and Samsung, which has a value of US$223 billion, both have been deeply influenced by Moore's Law that many argue will become irrelevant. The two firms have often faced the question of whether they will also become irrelevant or continue to play leadership roles in the future. However, we can expect Samsung and TSMC to remain important and irreplaceable for the next 10 years. As for the others in the present top-10, with the fast and unpredictable changes in the era of the Internet, none of them can be certain to be staying at the forefront for long.Meanwhile, the worldwide network market can be divided into two areas: one is China and the other is beyond China. China has been keen competitors in various sectors worldwide, investing in the telecommunication industries of its neighbors and in US electric vehicle firms, and many others.However, China's local network, telecommunication and cloud computing services have all been strictly controlled by the government citing national security concerns. As a result, China is a closed market that has managed to create its home-grown networking giants such as Alibaba and Tencent.But China's ICT industry is now facing all types of challenges in its attempt to reach the pinnacle. Not only does it need to catch up with the current step of the semiconductor industry, it also faces an onslaught by the US in the upcoming 5G era. None of the global top-15 semiconductor suppliers is from China, which imported a total of US$312 billion of semiconductors in 2018, and exported a much smaller amount that resulted in a trade deficit of US$227.4 billion in the year. The semiconductor sector remains the weakest link in the superpower's tech industry. And related upstream semiconductor equipment and design tools are also being controlled by US-based firms.China is known as the world's factory, but its industry prowess is not as strong as imagined. Still far from the peak, China is at a critical point in the development of its ICT industry and its national strengths in general.(Note: This is part of a series of articles by Digitimes president Colley Hwang on the latest developments of the IT industry in the wake of the US-China trade war.)

I call the first island chain in East Asia the "Asian Edge," which carries a double reference: cutting-edge technologies in an IT context, and the peripheral in geopolitics. In the ICT market, the US is the first superpower, while China, which has been catching up fast, comes in second. Following the two dominating forces, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan that feature cutting-edge technologies form the third camp of superpowers lurking on the geopolitical edge of the top-two superpowers.Apple's application processors (APs) are completely outsourced to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), while its demand for memory and OLED is met by Samsung Electronics. Apart from the iPhone vendor, most of the other US-based top-notch ICT firms including Intel, Microsoft, Qualcomm, Nvidia, AMD, Synopsys, Texas Instruments (TI) and Xilinx heavily depend on Asia's supply chain.The operation of the ICT industry, which used to simply follow traditional business practices, has changed in response to the rising of China. The trade war waged by US president Donald Trump may even become the beginning of a revolution for Asia's ICT industry and permanently change the global supply/demand relationships.For the key trends of the global ICT industry in the next 10 years, we should not just monitor the tech giants in the US and China, such as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Alibaba and Tencent. The roles of Taiwan, Japan and South Korea in semiconductor and 5G applications will also be important. Because of the enormous investment amounts and the intricate links between existing and emerging technologies, I believe hardware technologies that have been written off for so long may stage a comeback.Taiwan is situated at the very front of the first island chain. It is a major player in the worldwide ICT supply chain, but is also the weakest link from a geopolitical perspective. The rise of China has sent Taiwan makers relying more on production in China, boosting their competitiveness on the one hand and yet putting Taiwan's ICT industry in an awkward position on the other.If China were to take over Taiwan politically, not only would it give the superpower direct access to the Pacific Ocean, it would also be able to leverage Taiwan's ICT prowess and resources, fixing the chink of its armor – namely the semiconductor sector – turning the country into a true manufacturing power worldwide.Taiwan's over 100 semiconductor firms together contributed US$92 billion in production value in 2018, while South Korea's semiconductor industry generates a value of around US$100 billion a year. Currently, Taiwan's and South Korea's semiconductor industries run a coopetition relationship. They form the very first obstacle that China needs to remove in order to develop its own semiconductor industry.(Note: This is part of a series of articles by Digitimes president Colley Hwang on the latest developments of the IT industry in the wake of the US-China trade war.)

How is the trade war between the US and China affecting Taiwan, Japan and South Korea? Why are semiconductors and 5G becoming the key issues of their brawls? 5G technologies are bringing revolutionary changes to the ICT industry's operation and ecosystem. Apart from the economic benefits, they have strong implications in terms of many sensitive issues, such as data and national security. This is the reason why both the US and China are taking the matter seriously.Semiconductors are the key driving the ecosystem behind the Internet. High-speed calculation and mass storage all need support from semiconductors, which as a result are the foundation of the ICT industry. The US-China trade tensions have recast semiconductor giants South Korea, Taiwan and Japan back to the center of the stage. South Korea currently has the largest memory industry worldwide, while Taiwan's foundry sector is the global production center of top-end chips. Although the trade war is between the two superpowers, the battlefields are actually in Taiwan and South Korea.In order to shed light on all these latest developments, I've written my eighth book of my career in the ICT industry: Asian Edge: On the Frontline of the ICT World. Although the focus of the ICT industry may not necessarily shift entirely from the West to the East, the roles of the ICT industry players in the East are definitely growing much more important.The book also describes how Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, all located on the first island chain at the edge of Asia, have been able to reach where they are right now and how they have gained competitiveness making them stand out from the US and China. This book represents an Asian perspective and an Asian researcher's view on the ICT industry.In 1985 - the year Microsoft released Windows, and the first year of the PC era - I returned to Taiwan to participate in the planning of the local ICT industry and witnessed the PC industry's booming growth while working at Hsinchu Science Park. At the time, I worked with colleagues reporting to ICT industry pioneers such as KT Lee, Stan Shih and Morris Chang, and saw substantial OEM orders come knocking on the doors of Taiwan's ICT industry in the 1990s, creating the heyday that pushed Taiwan to the top of the global ICT manufacturing sector.After year 2000, the worldwide ICT industry's focus has turned from PCs to mobile communication devices, and China's industries had also grown strong after 20 years of economic reform. With its strong domestic demand, demographic dividend, capital market and investment from national capital, China has won out in nearly all core industries - from petrochemical, steel, shipbuilding and automobile to IT applications such as panel, solar, car-use battery - they have made efforts into developing.What are the keys to China's success? In the past 30 years, I have made trips that have taken me to almost 100 cities in China in order to be at the frontline to understand the business models and the influences of Taiwan IT players moving production to China's Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu and Chongqing. My experiences living in the US for 18 months and as an exchange student in South Korea for two years also helped give me a clear understanding of how Taiwan and South Korea have been caught between the US-China row.As a researcher studying the relationships between the industries in the US and Asia, a witness of the global ICT industry's transformation, I felt responsible to provide the information that I have of the frontline to people around the worldwide and to share my views through support from historical facts.During the past 18 months, I have visited India, Japan, South Korea, China, UAE, Iceland, Netherlands, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Armenia, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland - a total of 16 countries. I have seen changes to the world, the critical roles that South Korea, Taiwan and Japan are playing in the global market, and the reaction of the supply chain to the competition between the US and China.(Note: This is part of a series of articles by Digitimes president Colley Hwang on the latest developments of the IT industry in the wake of the US-China trade war.)