Global high-brightness LED market forecast

Digitimes Research forecasts that the global LED lighting market will be worth US$25.4 billion in 2013, representing 54% growth on the 2012 figure of US$16.5 billion, while the LED lighting penetration rate will also rise to 18.6%. In terms of technological improvements, the luminous efficacy of LEDs compared to traditional lighting continues to rise. Given that the US Department of Energy (DoE) development targets were set at 129 lm/W for warm white light LEDs and 164 lm/W for cold white light LEDs, a quick look at the track record of many manufacturers shows that the industry has surpassed the brightness standards set out in the DoE targets every year since their inception.

LED lighting product prices are likely to drop by 20-25% in 2013, as LED component performance/price ratios rise from 2012's 500 lm/US$ to 1,000 lm/US$ in 2013.

Looking further ahead to 2015, the US DoE targets are for LED component costs to drop 37% from 2013 levels, while 60W-equivalent LED bulb costs are to drop by 38% from 2013 levels by 2015. Assuming this is the case, LED lighting prices will then be at a price point even more acceptable to general consumers.

Lighting policy in many countries is also critical to the development of LED lighting, and this effect has been most marked in the Asia region. For example, Japan now has the highest LED lighting market penetration rate of any region, with the rate set to rise to 73.8% by 2015; South Korea's Korea Association for Photonics Industry Development (KAPID) projects that the country's LED lighting industry will have an output value of US$7.8 billion by 2015, 5.6 times the figure for 2012; while China's LED lighting market is growing by 30% per year, which will give the country nearly one third of total global output value for LED lighting in 2015.

All of these factors are driving major growth in the LED lighting market. Digitimes Research therefore projects that the global LED lighting market will be worth US$44.2 billion in 2015, while the market penetration rate will reach 38.6%.