What kind of world will it be in 2030? The era of 5G with low latency, high speed and ultra-connectivity is maturing, and people are waiting for 6G that will leverage low orbit satellites to achieve decentralized bandwidth, opening yet another a new chapter of human life. By that time, at least 30% of the cars on the market will be electric vehicles (EV), and Level 5 self-driving cars combined with smart poles will bring about obvious changes in transportation, and smart cities will take shape. Under the ESG framework, efforts to improve information security using quantum technology will be rewarded; more efficient energy mechanisms will be connected to the super grid; the greenhouse effect will see improvements; people will be dreaming of a more stylish smart city; and we'll have new audio-visual experiences. These we can foresee and observe from the market side.
Rising popularity of electric vehicles (EV) has grabbed global attention. Poised to replace internal combustion engines, EVs are considered the new trend in the era of sustainability. A storm of competition ignited by Tesla, is brewing in the EV market, with traditional US and European automakers are pushing into in-house battery development and manufacturing with an aim to secure bigger cost advantages in the coming decades.
As electric vehicle (EV) development becomes a global effort, batteries that play a vital role to EVs' cost-performance ratios are a focus to manufacturers with ambitions to expand in the EV market. Both traditional and new automakers have considered battery technology development and production capacity to be importance to their overall planning. Automakers across Europe, America, Japan, Korea and China are actively engaging in battery solution research and production line build-up.
In view of intensifying US-China confrontation and Taiwan actively promoting its New Southbound Policy, many Taiwan-based suppliers intend to meet increasing capacity demand by relocating manufacturing to Southeast Asia and building new industrial clusters there to tap the demographic and geographic advantages as well as rapidly growing market demand in the region. They look to replicate their experiences in China and make Southeast Asia the next world factory that will support rising needs as the global supply chain makes transitions to accommodate "G2" (US vs China) developments.
Taiwan-based networking device assemblers continue to relocate their production lines from China back to Taiwan or to Southeast Asia, despite a recent surge in COVID-19 infections locally.
Global supply chain restructuring that is being accelerated by the US-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic gears toward two directions in view of geopolitical factors: "China+1" - the business strategy to still tap the China market but diversify production to other countries to avoid punitive US tariffs on Chinese goods; and "China-free" - the initiative to drive self-sufficiency to counter China's dominance and protect national security.
Disconnected ICT Supply Chains: New Power Plays Unfolding written by Colley Hwang, founder & president, DIGITIMES, is among the very few books available at present that take an in-depth look into current global supply chain developments. It immediately grabbed industry attention after publication in late May 2020. A group of industry leaders gathered at a book reading event at the end of July to share their experiences in coping with COVID-19 impacts over the past six months and validate the visions given in the book.
Disconnected ICT Supply Chains: New Power Plays Unfolding written by Digitimes founder and president Colley Hwang has been greeted with overwhelming enthusiasm after its original Chinese edition was published in May 2020. The Chinese edition has had three printings within a little over two months. It is the only book in Taiwan and possibly in the whole world that takes an in-depth look into current global supply chain developments and offers the industry insights into the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and US-China trade tension.
China accounts for a third of the global car market. And of the 2.2 million electric vehicles (EV) sold worldwide in 2019, 48.2% were sold in the China market. No wonder China carries so much importance in the car industry.
There are many factors that should be taken into consideration when doing market research. To better assess supply chain changes, let's first draw a 3x3 grid that offers a clear framework on all key information. Across the diagonal of the grid, we put the fundamental factors that will affect the ICT industry's integrity and influence. Then, we put supply-side factors on the upper left part of the grid and demand-side factors on the lower right. This will help us gain a grasp of key information when searching through a massive database.
To give a clear picture of the ICT industries, we can divide them into five major market segments - communication, computing, home appliances, automotive electronics, and industrial automation/defense. For example, computing and communication contribute about 65-70% of the ICT sales, with consumer electronics, automotive devices, and industrial control each accounting for about 10%. Automotive devices promise explosive growths, while industrial control involves large varieties of applications. But the arrival of 5G is also promising huge business opportunities for industrial applications. Consumer electronics still have potentials coming from smart home applications, such as TVs.
China has a population of 1.4 billion in 2020. China's GDP would reach US$15.7 trillion according to CIA estimates. If China could maintain its target of a 6% growth, its GDP would be close to 80% of America's US$20 trillion. CIA even projected that China's GDP would climb to US$38.2 trillion by 2040, far surpassing America's US$28.8 trillion. China has become the world's factory and the world's biggest market.
When Chinese president Xi Jinping declared war on COVID-19, I knew the outbreak in China must have been very grave. At the time, many Taiwanese CEOs and managers had returned home from China for the Lunar New Year break. They couuld not go back to work in China after the holiday, and yet these "stranded" CEOs provided us with very good sources of first-hand information about what was actually happening to the supply chains in China during the outbreak. As an analyst with 35 years of experience under my belt, and with strong ties with many industry leaders in Taiwan, I felt a strong commitment to recording what I was witnessing at this turning point.
Global smartphone shipments are expected to reach 1.278 billion units in 2020, including less than 200 million units of 5G models, taking into account the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak on China and around the world in terms of economic growth, Digitimes Research estimates.
IC design houses in Taiwan and China will see the coronavirus outbreak impact their revenues for the first quarter of 2020, and foundry and backend houses may take clearer hits starting in the second quarter, according to a study by Digitimes Research on impacts of the epidemic on semiconductor, panel, handset and notebook sectors.
