Apple's iPhone 16 series officially launched on September 20. Driven by the boost from generative AI and notable processor upgrades, telecom operators, e-commerce platforms, and physical retailers are generally optimistic about the iPhone 16's sales outlook. Some industry players have even predicted that the fourth quarter of 2024 will see the largest iPhone upgrade cycle ever.
With the first wave of pre-orders exceeding expectations, many expect iPhone 16 sales to increase by 15–20% compared to last year's iPhone 15. However, there are still three major concerns regarding whether iPhone 16 sales will increase as expected:
1. Why is there a disparity between Taiwan's market demand forecast and global demand?
While Taiwanese businesses are unanimously optimistic about the overall sales performance of the iPhone 16 in the second half of the year, some research institutions remain conservative about global iPhone sales. They estimate that global shipments of iPhones in the fourth quarter will only reach around 75–80 million units, similar to last year.
This conservative view is partly because Apple Intelligence will initially only support the English version, with other languages delayed until 2025. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding iPhone 16 sales in China is another critical factor.
As for why Taiwanese businesses are more optimistic, some attribute it to Apple's aggressive stocking strategy for retailers in 2024, noticeable feature upgrades in the iPhone 16, and a price that's the same as the iPhone 15. Some are even concerned that the early supply of the iPhone 16 Pro series might fall short of demand.
2. Will the basic model outperform the traditionally best-selling Pro series?
This year's iPhone 16 uses the A18 processor and maintains the same price as the iPhone 15, leading some to expect the iPhone 16 basic model to break the Pro series' long-standing dominance as the top seller. Many are optimistic about the future sales performance of the iPhone 16.
However, an analysis of the actual pre-order data from the first wave shows that the 256GB iPhone 16 Pro Max was still the first to sell out. This indicates that consumer preferences and buying habits for different iPhone models have not significantly changed despite the iPhone 16's much improved cost-performance ratio.
Industry sources believe that in regions with high iPhone penetration, such as Taiwan and Japan, the Pro series will remain the favorite. However, it's worth watching whether the iPhone 16 can achieve better results in emerging markets, which will be a key factor in determining the overall success of this year's iPhone sales.
3. Will it cannibalize sales of previous generation models?
The iPhone 15 has seen recent price adjustments due to the iPhone 16 launch, with discounts of around NT$3,500 (approx. US$110). Despite that, with the iPhone 16 having the same launch price as the iPhone 15 while featuring a more advanced processor, whether this will cannibalize sales of the n-1 generation of iPhone models remains to be seen, and this will be one of the key variables influencing overall iPhone shipments in the fourth quarter.
