TSMC's March revenue surged, yet future forecasts face uncertainties. Potential US tariffs and a possible US$1 billion fine for export violations raise concerns despite strong AI demand.
TSMC reported net revenue of approximately NT$285.96 billion (approx. US$8.66 billion) for March 2025, marking a 10% rise from February and a 46.5% increase from March 2024. Revenue for the first quarter of 2025 reached NT$839.25 billion, up 41.6% from the same period in 2024.
However, TSMC's outlook may not be so rosy. Semiconductors are currently exempt from US tariffs, and the implementation of reciprocal tariffs has been postponed for many trading partners. However, concerns persist that these tariffs could reduce end-product demand, negatively affecting the semiconductor market.
Additionally, DIGITIMES, citing industry sources, reported that TSMC's forecast for 25% revenue growth in US dollar terms may be revised downward.
Bloomberg Intelligence noted that TSMC appears insulated from the impact of new US import tariffs thanks to its dominant position in advanced chipmaking, particularly with the accelerating demand for AI-related chips. However, short-term profitability risks may arise due to rising operating costs linked to rapid overseas expansion, particularly in the US, new node ramp-up expenses, and ongoing underutilization of mature-node facilities.
On another note, Reuters reports that TSMC may face a potential penalty of US$1 billion to resolve a US export-control investigation related to alleged Huawei chip violations. Bloomberg Intelligence said in a note that if imposed, this fine would be the largest from the US Department of Commerce since 2019, but its financial impact is seen as modest, representing only 2% of TSMC's estimated gross profit for 2024 and 1.5% for 2025. In contrast, Seagate's US$300 million fine in 2023 constituted 9% of its gross profit from the previous year.
Article edited by Jerry Chen
