As an entrepreneur and industry analyst, I have never told anyone asking for advice that there is "no solution": There is always a solution and the only difference is whether it's a good one or bad one. Taiwan's semiconductor industry is known as the protector of the nation, but will it face stagnation or free fall?
When it comes to Taiwan's industrial strategy, we should start by defining the problem. Taiwan's importance lies in the fact that we have "irreplaceable" industry segments, not because of the current hot topics, such as self-driving cars, artificial intelligence, information security, or even technological issues such as quantum technology and low-orbit satellites. In terms of national strategy, we must explore trends and strategies that may have structural implications.
The US-China trade war is the epicenter of this wave of industrial change, and among the technology industry issues behind it, semiconductors and supply chain are the core. We certainly need a group of experts who can explore in depth what Taiwan can do behind the "G2" war, or beyond "G2." And how has the US national strategy been shaped?
After becoming the US president in 2017, Trump, a businessman by trade, cared much about maximizing US interest in the woorld of business. We can imagine how much it cost behind the phone call between Trump and Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen before he took office. Who facilitated such a call? How did the US national security team form and how did Taiwan respond?
When Alex N Wong, deputy assistant secretary for North Korea, Bureau of East Asia and Pacific Affairs, visited Taiwan, the Taiwanese media made a big deal of it. After he returned home, the hype quickly subsided. We need to be aware of the situation we faced and the great risks our companies might face when the US finalized its strategy for China by early 2018.
When the CEOs of Intel and Infineon said that the US and Europe should revive their own semiconductor industries, what is Taiwan's proposition? When companies move their production out of China, will it be an opportunity or a challenge for Taiwan's manufacturers? How will Japan and South Korea respond? How will Vietnam, India, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore respond? How much does Taiwan know and how will it respond?
I fully agree with the Ministry of Economic Affairs' use of "smart manufacturing" as the basis for reviewing incentives for Taiwanese companies in the midst of the return of Taiwanese companies, but there is little discussion of smart manufacturing in Taiwan. Every manufacturer is talking about ESG, because the pressure of carbon reduction today will become the cost of competition and the key to survival for Taiwanese manufacturers in a few years. We all know that digital transformation is crucial, but few knows what percentage of revenue should be invested in IT by large manufacturers.
We need experts from the ASEAN and emerging markets, and of course, we want someone to share the recent situations in Silicon Valley, and Japanese, Korean and European experts should not be ignored. What we should talk about is not the technical details of electric cars, artificial intelligence, quantum technology, or the deepening trend of a single industry, but more about horizontal industry links and partnerships.
Never mind what good cards you have at present. Once the rules of the game change, the advantages of the past will become the burdens of the future.
