What kind of world will it be in 2030? The era of 5G with low latency, high speed and ultra-connectivity is maturing, and people are waiting for 6G that will leverage low orbit satellites to achieve decentralized bandwidth, opening yet another a new chapter of human life. By that time, at least 30% of the cars on the market will be electric vehicles (EV), and Level 5 self-driving cars combined with smart poles will bring about obvious changes in transportation, and smart cities will take shape. Under the ESG framework, efforts to improve information security using quantum technology will be rewarded; more efficient energy mechanisms will be connected to the super grid; the greenhouse effect will see improvements; people will be dreaming of a more stylish smart city; and we'll have new audio-visual experiences. These we can foresee and observe from the market side.
Taiwan tech firms have made considerable achievements in the EV sector, having entered the supply chain of Tesla. But as the car market is still dominated by traditional marques who are now also keen to continue the market of future cars, Taiwan tech firms face quite some hurdles to entering the supply chains of these major car vendors. With the easing of the pandemic possibly slowing demand for devices supporting stay-at-home needs, chip vendors are now said to be expecting Chromebook shipments to grow at a slower pace in 2021. Corning has announced a moderate price hike to its display glass substrates in third-quarter 2021 to reflect rising production costs.
Global top-5 notebook brands, not including Apple, saw their combined shipments drop 7% on month in May. Despite strong notebook demand from the end market, IC supply remained constrained, while the issue of incompatible components at vendors worsened, according to figures from Digitimes Research.
Construction of TSMC's fab in Arizona is on track to move in equipment as ealy as mid-2022, and equipment suppliers are aleady sending teams of engineers to the US state to assist the pure-play foundry's 5nm fab project. In China, its top-3 pure-play foundries have seen significant business growth despite COVID-19 and US-China tensions, according to Digitimes Research. RISC-V is seeing strong growth. Digitimes recently talked to RISC-V International CTO Mark Himelstein and Andes Technology CEO Frankwell Lin about the prospects of the open-source platform.
TSMC is fast advancing its manufacturing processes, and it is expected to move its N4, namely 4nm, node to risk production in the third quarter of 2021, with N3 - 3nm node - to start volume production at the world's number-one pure-play foundry house in second-half 2022. With chip shortage not expected to ease anytime soon amid persistently tight semiconductor manufacturing capacity, foundry houses have already notified clients they are raising servie fees again next month. In the PC sector, Intel stands to lose more share in the notebook processor market, as Apple, now one of the chip giant's major clients, is switching to in-house developed Arm-based CPUs.
Taiwan's PC monitor shipments are expected to grow about 3% on both sequential and on-year bases in the second quarter of 2021, as shortages of related components and materials continue to constrain growths, according to Digitimes Research.
Chip vendors have been scrambling for foundry capacity supply from Taiwan. Both international and domestic IC vendors, such as Infineon and MediaTek have been willing to strike long-term foundry contracts. In China, device brand vendors are keen on rolling out Gan-based fast chargers, stimulating demand for GaN-on-Si chips. But smartphone sales in China remained feeble in May, dropping 31% on year.
Mask ROM and flash memory maker Macronix is close to striking a deal to sell its 6-inch fab in Taiwan. Tokyo Electron is named as the most likely buyer of the Macronix fab. The notebook sector has been troubled by component shortages for months, but outlook for the notebook market remains robust throughout the year. Taiwan-based diode makers see clear order visibility through the end of the year, thanks to WFH needs and a surge in automotive applications.
The top-100 tech firms in Asia are mostly based in Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan, with the car and tech products/equipment sectors making up the two largest groups, according to Asia Supply Chain 100 (ASC 100), the freshly released research results by Digitimes. The ASC 100 study, based on the companies' revenues, profit and market cap, wil be renewed annually. In the notebook industry, makers are using more aluminum-alloy components to replace copper ones, as copper prices stay at high levels.
Intel has announced two new Tiger Lake-U Refresh processors at Computex 2021, but tight supply of the latest CPUs is undermining notebook vendors' plans of launching devices using the new offersings from the US chip giant. In China, LCD panel maker BOE Technology reportedly has plans to build its third 10.5G line, which could send the global market in the direction towards oversupply. In the semiconductor sector, Taiwan-based IC distributors are set to see significant sales in 2021, particularly those with a significant presence in the memory segment.
The 5G private network architecture outlined in 3GPP Release 16 allows businesses to deploy private networks by themselves, which will not only bring changes to the previous model that relies on telecom operators in the 4G era but also the rise of Open RAN (O-RAN) market, according to Digitimes Research.
Notebook ODMs still see robust orders from clients, but productions have been seriously hampered by component shortages, with notebook shipment results vary from maker to maker in May. In the memory market, NOR flash prices are expected to surge in third-quarter 2021, stimulated by smartphone spec upgrades. According to Digitimes Research, global smartphone shipments are set to grow in 2021.
Worldwide smartphone shipments are likely to reach 650 million units in the first half of 2021, and shipments in the first and second quarters each will register a double-digit growth from a year earlier, according to Digitimes Research forecasts.
The PC sector has endured months of shortage of components, and the recent surges in COVID infections in Taiwan and Malaysia are threatening to worsen the component shortfall. Demand for notebooks is expected to remain robust through the end of 2021, and Taiwanese notebook and graphics card makers have reported strong sales for May. And foundry service supply is expected to remain extremely tight throughout 2021, with some clients having already booked capacity for next year and even 2023.
Taiwan's tech firms have intensified coronavirus-prevention measures after COVID-19 hit some local semiconductors plants, with KYEC bearing the brunt of the impacts, raising concerns about the stability of IC supply that has already been troubled by capacity shortage for months. In the IT market, despite speculation that demand for notebooks may weaken in second-half 2021 as a result of easing of the pandemic, ODMs are still confident about notebook orders throughout the year. In India, Lava International reportedly is preparing for IPO, as it seeks to reclaim lost ground in the local handset market.
Taiwan's ICT supply chain, especially semiconductor backend houses have seen rising COVID-19 infections among their workers. Around 180 employees of KYEC had been diagnosed for being infected with the coronavirus as of June 5. However, MediaTek is still optimistic about its sales for the second quarter, despite KYEC, a major backend services partner of the chip supplier, had closure of production lines for two days. MediaTek is working closely with KYEC to mitigate the impact. On the other hand, demand for miniLED backlighting boards has been picking up as miniLED-based gaming and creator notebooks have seen rising sales.
