Year-end holiday demand in the fourth quarter of 2022 was seriously undermined by the economic downturn brought by rising global inflation and mature markets' interest rate hikes with global notebook shipments estimated to slip 16% sequentially and over 40% on year, and the situation is unlikely to improve much in the first quarter of 2023, according to DIGITIMES Research's figures from the latest report covering Taiwan's notebook industry.
The consumer sector suffered high channel inventory, while demand from enterprises also plunged drastically in the fourth quarter, resulting in brand vendors significantly decelerating their order pull-ins for the quarter.
In addition to seasonality, with the economic downturn in mature markets in Europe and North America likely to persist and vendors' inventory at the channel having no chance to return to a safe level anytime soon, vendors' shipments are expected to hurt seriously in the first quarter of 2023.
The top-6 brands worldwide will all witness an on-quarter shipment decline in the first quarter of 2023. Lenovo, the largest brand in the quarter, has an inventory level of more than six weeks at the channel at the moment and is expected to see a shipment decline of over 15% sequentially in the first quarter with its key markets – Europe and China – still suffering from sluggish demand, the figures show.
Hewlett-Packard (HP) in second place is expected to experience an over 20% sequential drop in first-quarter shipments with its conservative attitude toward shipments because of high channel inventory.
Number three Dell will only witness a decline of around 10% because of the enterprise sector's feeble state, which created a low comparison base in the fourth quarter.
Number four Apple's shipments will plunge drastically in the first quarter. Despite the release of its new MacBook Pro products, their increased prices in non-US markets and a lack of major hardware upgrades are making them less appealing to consumers.
Number five Asustek Computer and six Acer are anticipated to see a slower shipment decline in the first quarter with their keen digestion of channel inventory during the prior quarter.
Taiwan ODMs' shipments will not see any major improvement in the first quarter; however, Wistron' shipment share is expected to pick up dramatically thanks to Dell's increased orders for enterprise models.
