Space technology executives warn that small satellite launch companies face mounting pressure from both established players and market dynamics, despite new opportunities emerging in lunar missions and space manufacturing.
"The economics for small satellite launch vehicles are challenging," says Skyroot Aerospace's VP of Business Development Sireesh Pallikonda. While SpaceX offers launches at US$6,500-7,000 per kilogram through its Falcon 9 rocket, smaller vehicles typically charge US$30,000-40,000 per kilogram, creating a stark pricing gap that's difficult to bridge.
The reusability advantages that enable SpaceX to achieve lower costs may not translate well to smaller launchers. "For small satellite launch vehicles, reusability would not be very efficient," Pallikonda explains, suggesting expendable rockets may remain more commercially viable for smaller players.
Industry consolidation compounds these challenges. With major constellations like SpaceX's Starlink and Amazon's Project Kuiper preferring heavy launch vehicles, small launch providers must target niche markets like specialized orbits and smaller satellite networks of 30-40 satellites.
HEX20 CEO Lloyd Jacob Lopez emphasizes standardization as a key industry hurdle. "The satellite industry is in a very early stage where we are seeing people adopting different standards for integration," he says. The lack of common interfaces between satellite buses, payloads, and launch vehicles complicates integration and drives up costs.
Both executives see promising opportunities in emerging sectors. New space-based manufacturing facilities planned by companies like Axiom and Voyager will require regular cargo services. Lunar missions and deep space exploration are gaining traction, while Earth observation becomes increasingly critical for monitoring climate change and urban development.
However, the industry faces intensifying competition. "At least 50 companies are trying to prove their technology capabilities in the next couple of years," Pallikonda says, competing for an estimated 150-300 launches by 2030.
The launch landscape could shift dramatically with SpaceX's Starship vehicle, potentially bringing costs down to US$1,000 per kilogram. "Design and standards across the industry are going to take a rapid change," Pallikonda concludes.
