Under the Paris Agreement, nations were required to update and submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years, with the deadline having passed on February 10, 2025. The submission period concluded amid mounting political and economic pressures, particularly President Donald Trump's return to the White House last month, with key players such as the European Union and India still determining their carbon reduction commitments.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports that 2015–2024 ranks as the hottest decade on record, with 2024 setting a new high, marking a 1.55-degree Celsius rise from pre-industrial levels. 2015 marked the signing of the Paris Agreement—yet a decade later, temperatures continue to climb. On his inauguration day, January 20, 2025, President Trump announced the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and plans to impose steep tariffs on imports, sending shockwaves through global climate policy circles and exacerbating economic volatility and carbon policy uncertainties.
According to industry insiders, the tense US-China trade landscape, coupled with geopolitical shocks from the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle Eastern conflicts, has led many nations to delay releasing NDC 3.0, as they assess the implications of the US withdrawal.
Over a dozen countries—including Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, and the UK—have submitted their NDCs, detailing emission reduction targets for 2035. However, EU officials are reportedly weighing their approach, citing concerns over the economic toll of green policies. According to Reuters, India has not yet finished the studies needed to design its climate plan, a government official confirmed. Meanwhile, China will publish its climate plan "in due course," a foreign ministry spokesperson said on February 10.
Following the Biden administration's aggressive push for renewables, electric vehicles, and low-carbon tech, experts believe short-term US carbon emissions are unlikely to see major shifts. The US withdrawal, however, could ripple far beyond American borders, destabilizing emissions plans for oil-exporting nations and countries lagging in decarbonization.
Taiwan, meanwhile, has pushed ahead. The government unveiled a Beta version of NDC 3.0 on January 23, 2025, setting emission reduction targets of 32±2% in 2032 and 38±2% in 2035. The plan spans six major sectors: energy, manufacturing, transportation, real estate, agriculture, and the environment.
With global supply chains increasingly demanding emissions cuts, industry heavyweights like Apple and TSMC have pledged net-zero targets in 2040–2050. Taiwan's NDC 3.0 will likely accelerate corporate decarbonization efforts, with TSMC already announcing that from 2025, carbon performance will factor into supplier selection.
Yet Taiwan still faces hurdles. Limited green energy supply capacity, soaring carbon reduction costs, and policy ambiguity threaten progress. Shortfalls in renewable energy targets and bottlenecks in sourcing green electricity could undermine corporate climate commitments.
As the government rolls out NDC 3.0, its approach to accelerating renewables, refining carbon pricing mechanisms, and offering clearer incentives for businesses will be critical in determining Taiwan's carbon reduction success by 2025.
