Following Donald Trump's victory in the recent US presidential election, there are rising concerns about how his administration's policies might impact Taiwanese suppliers. Macronix International chairman and CEO Miin Wu noted TSMC will likely replicate its most advanced processes, including sub-2nm technology, in the US, as Taiwan may have limited choice under international pressure.
TSMC is set to celebrate the first production output of its 4nm process at its factory in Arizona. However, with the upcoming transition in leadership, new variables could emerge regarding subsidies and tariffs related to the CHIPS Act.
Wu emphasized that the future impact depends largely on how the US proceeds with policy specifics. He notes that while the CHIPS Act is legally established, with subsidies already allocated, the new administration might introduce revised terms or conditional tariffs targeting certain products or processes. These changes could compel supply chain players to adhere to official policies and set up manufacturing in the US.
Taiwan's current regulations on semiconductor technology exports require domestic mass production of advanced generations before they can be produced abroad. However, Wu suggested that these rules may face pressure as the US steps up its commitment to securing advanced AI technology and semiconductor processes. According to Wu, to ease Taiwan Strait tensions and minimize geopolitical risks, the US will likely push TSMC to replicate its most advanced manufacturing capabilities within American borders. Consequently, Taiwan may need to reassess its export regulations to adapt to these shifting dynamics.
Wu explained that TSMC's competitive edge comes from consistently achieving yield rates above industry norms, driven by advanced data analytics and AI integration in production. This capability results from TSMC's extensive data collection, process optimization, and the support of a highly skilled workforce with strong mathematical expertise, which shortens learning curves.
Macronix, too, has led in merging statistical methods with semiconductor manufacturing worldwide, applying AI and big data to enhance wafer fabrication processes.
While adopting AI could help Intel gradually close the gap with TSMC in yield rates, the validation process for each adjustment in process technology at Intel takes around four to five months, allowing only about two significant adjustments per year. Consequently, while Intel could progress toward catching up with TSMC, achieving comparable yield performance will still require time, though it remains a plausible goal.
Trump has accused Taiwan of benefiting unfairly from US chip technology and has demanded protection fees, proposing that Taiwan raise its defense spending to 10% of its GDP. However, Wu argued that although Taiwan has allocated significant military spending resources, the results have been limited. He suggested that raising defense spending to such a level would be unrealistic and may not align with the genuine interests of the US, which likely seeks more balanced support rather than an unsustainable increase in Taiwan's defense budget.
With Trump returning to the White House following his initial four-year term, Wu anticipates that the adjustment period between Trump and government officials will improve significantly. The primary expectation among the American public during Trump's presidency is to enhance economic conditions and address inflation issues. Wu expressed confidence that Trump will contribute positively to revitalizing the US economy.
