President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn in on January 20, 2025. A primary concern in the software sector is the potential tightening of regulations on open-source models and the implications for cloud service providers' operations in China.
US-China tech rivalry set to intensify
The US-China trade war began during Trump's first term, and although there has been a shift in leadership with the Biden administration, technological restrictions on China have continued. As Trump prepares for his return to the White House, new variables and uncertainties emerge, especially concerning AI.
Mixed signals on AI regulation
Trump has commented on AI, expressing concerns about deepfakes and AI potentially surpassing human capabilities. However, his stance on AI regulation remains unclear, especially considering AI's crucial role in the US-China competition and the risk that excessive regulation could hamper innovation in American tech sectors.
While the Trump-supporting Elon Musk has warned about AI risks and criticized OpenAI's departure from its original mission, his continued push for the advancement of AI technologies and humanoid robot development may suggest a more nuanced position on AI regulation.
Open-source AI under scrutiny
Under a second Trump presidency, American tech companies may face limited domestic restrictions on AI development. However, open-source AI models could face increased oversight, particularly following reports of Chinese military applications using Meta's Llama model.
Given Trump's previous accusations against Meta regarding social media bias, analysts suggest his administration might target the company over its open-source models' use in China. Google, another major open-source AI provider, could face similar scrutiny.
Industry perspectives on regulation
Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt has indicated that increasing tech company investments in AI will likely lead to stricter regulations. Schmidt emphasizes that technology's dual-use nature requires careful consideration of associated risks, particularly as AI models become globally accessible, including in countries like China, Russia, and Iran.
In contrast, AI Fund managing partner Andrew Ng argues that technology itself should remain unregulated, advocating instead for oversight of specific applications like chatbots or deepfakes. Both experts acknowledge the challenge of legislating rapidly evolving AI technology, noting the US preference for market-driven development.
Cloud computing concerns
The incoming administration faces questions about potential different standards for domestic and international AI technology circulation. Some US lawmakers have expressed concern about American cloud platforms potentially enabling Chinese access to advanced computing power, though legislative action has stalled.
While high-end chips face strict controls, cloud computing regulations remain ambiguous. American cloud providers are reportedly differentiating their global and Chinese service offerings, with some services facing delays in China. Chinese manufacturers note that Nvidia GPU computing power remains accessible through cloud providers and third parties, highlighting the challenges in regulating cloud resources.
Tech industry braces for impact
The major US cloud service providers and Meta, which don't represent Trump's traditional support base, face uncertainty in their relationship with the incoming administration. Industry sources report that following Trump's victory, tech offices displayed a subdued atmosphere as discussions began regarding Asia-Pacific supply chain adjustments. Going forward, these negotiations will play a crucial role in shaping future technology policies.
