Trump's anticipated return to the White House could reignite global trade tensions, leaving US trade partners and businesses uncertain about potential new tariff measures. While the legal framework for implementing additional tariffs remains subject to debate, Trump maintains access to various legislative tools, including trade laws dating back to the 1960s.
Strategic trade policy
During his previous administration, Trump wielded tariffs as a versatile instrument—targeting critical supply chain dependencies, addressing industrial overcapacity issues in sectors like steel, and leveraging trade concessions. Currently, attention has shifted to the semiconductor industry, a vital import sector, as speculation mounts about possible tariff implementations. With Taiwan supplying 40% of US logic chip imports, any new tariffs could potentially create significant disruptions across technology supply chains.
Industry implications
Market analysts remain divided on the implications. Some experts interpret Trump's statements as negotiation tactics designed to accelerate US investments from companies like TSMC, while others contend that tariffs could undermine national security objectives related to domestic semiconductor production. For semiconductor manufacturers dependent on Taiwanese foundries, the prospect of increased costs and reduced profit margins poses a significant concern that could reshape industry dynamics.
Looking ahead
While Trump's provocative trade rhetoric often serves as a dealmaking strategy rather than a definitive policy, both businesses and policymakers are preparing for the possibility that some proposed measures may materialize. The critical question emerging focuses on Trump's leverage in implementing these policies—and the extent to which he might exercise it.
