Qianfan Constellation, often referred to as China's version of Starlink, has announced its plans to deploy 13,904 low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites by 2030. The project, while ambitious, faces significant challenges, including limited launch site availability, high costs of single-use rockets, and doubts about the survivability and durability of its LEO satellites.
Race for satellite deployment
According to a recent report by CNBC, three major Chinese players are pursuing satellite deployment strategies: Qianfan's G60 Starlink, the state-owned China Satellite Network Group Co.'s GW Constellation project, and private space leader Landspace's Honghu-3 Constellation project. Among these companies, Qianfan stands out with its plan to launch nearly 2,300 satellites annually, far surpassing SpaceX's current pace of 1,400 satellites per year. The company has committed to achieving initial global coverage by 2027 and enabling direct-to-smartphone connectivity worldwide by 2030.
Cost and infrastructure hurdles
China's reliance on single-use rockets presents a significant cost barrier. Unlike SpaceX's reusable Falcon 9, China's rockets must be scrapped after each mission, substantially increasing costs. However, Chinese firms such as Space Pioneer, Landspace, and Deep Blue Aerospace are racing to develop reusable launch systems, with Landspace's ZQ-3 launch vehicle system being a notable contender.
Further complicating matters, China's existing rocket launch sites primarily cater to government missions, leaving little room for commercial launches. To accommodate the massive number of satellites planned for deployment, China will need to expand its infrastructure, including the recently announced commercial rocket launch site on Hainan Island.
Global competition and market dynamics
Despite China's ambitions, the LEO satellite market continues to be dominated by Western players like SpaceX's Starlink, Eutelsat OneWeb, Telesat, and Amazon's Project Kuiper. Starlink alone has deployed nearly 7,000 satellites and aims to reach 42,000, while Qianfan has only 54 test satellites in orbit as of early 2025.
Taiwan's role in the satellite ecosystem
Taiwan has established itself in the satellite supply chain, focusing on four key areas: satellite manufacturing, launches, application services, and ground equipment. Taiwanese companies have successfully produced satellite bodies and components for systems like Starlink. In ground equipment, Taiwan supplies network solutions such as Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSATs) and gateways. However, Taiwan's satellite launch capabilities are in their infancy, with efforts underway to develop a launch vehicle capable of carrying a 200-kilogram payload into orbit.