Despite Intel and Microsoft subsidies, Digitimes Research expects global notebook shipments, not including 2-in-1 models, to drop 4.4% on year and 2.6% sequentially in the fourth quarter, as Windows XP will have less of an effect on boosting demand in the enterprise segment and most of the inventory preparation for year-end shopping sales has already been completed in the second and third quarters.
Taiwan notebook makers will see their shipments perform worse than the global average as Lenovo continues expanding its in-house production rate. Lenovo's joint venture with Compal Electronics in Hefei, China supplied two million notebooks in September and the output is expected to remain at the same level in the fourth quarter, according to Digitimes Research's latest ICT reports on the notebook industry.
US-based brand vendors' shares in the global notebook market in the fourth quarter will stay at similar levels to those in the previous quarter, but shipments will all decline due to weakening demand.
Lenovo and Asustek Computer, which performed outstandingly in terms of on-year growth in the third quarter, are expected to achieve better shipment results than other brand vendors in the fourth quarter and will be only a few of the vendors that will achieve growths both on year and sequentially.
Lenovo has been pushing its shipments in Europe, looking to return as the largest vendor in the fourth quarter with around 10 million units in notebook shipments. On the other hand, Asustek has resolved its component shortage and high channel inventory issues and is expected to return as a top-5 in the fourth quarter.
As for fifth-place Acer, although the vendor is the world's largest Chromebook seller, the company is expected to suffer a higher shipment drop than those of the others in the top-5, facing pressure from competitors, especially Lenovo
The ranking of Taiwan ODMs will not see much change, but the number-three to number-five ODMs will perform slightly better than Quanta Computer and Compal.