Former Premier of Taiwan Chuan Lin (2016-2017) once asked me, "Will the AI wave become a bubble?" I do not see any signs of a bubble. Perhaps you are thinking of the dot-com bubble, but did the internet bubble really burst? In the spring of 2000, internet stocks plummeted, and many startups closed down. However, the internet wave did not vanish; it even found greater opportunities after the launch of the iPhone in 2007. Today's AI wave is merely a new opportunity arising from the diverse connections of big data, cloud services, and more.
We do not foresee the possibility of an AI bubble, but we can sense the evolving business opportunities and the emergence of new oligopolistic structures. All technology is inherently unreliable; the only reliable aspect is the ability to learn new technologies. Taiwan may seem unassuming, and solely focused on manufacturing, yet it is versatile and irreplaceable.
Some companies, even internet giants, might experience a bubble, but in the short term, it will not be Taiwan's manufacturing-focused production system. Every user needs to place their end devices in front of them, and every cloud service provider (CSP) and data center operator requires a complete set of equipment, from motherboards to servers, when performing cluster computing. Software may be replaced, but hardware is indispensable.
Taiwanese businesses, while having a bird in hand, often feel uneasy amidst the unstable international environment. Even US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo has stated that when Taiwan is stable, the global economy is secure. Taiwan, as a democratic anchor in the Western Pacific, must recognize the significant responsibility it bears!
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Compared to learning various research methods from a business school, I draw on 40 years of industry research experience and personal involvement to attempt to divide the world I know into three eras—past, present, and future. Additionally, I explore the potential scenarios and responses that the international community might face in different eras, based on the traditional national power of the industrial age, the digital national power of the information age, and the forward-looking national power of the IoT era.
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This article is an excerpt from Colley Hwang's new book "SEMI Country: Trump Storm, and the Island of No Significance". The e-book version is now available for purchase on Amazon Kindle and Rakuten Kobo.
Article edited by Jack Wu
