Apple's adoption of OLED panels in the iPad Pro, starting in May 2024, signals a shift in display technology, driving broader OLED adoption in tablets and notebooks. Analysts expect Mini LED tablet shipments to dwindle sharply throughout 2024, reaching near-zero levels by 2025 as OLED technology takes the lead, according to TheElec.
Market dynamics: OLED gains momentum
The May 2024 launch of Apple's OLED-equipped iPad Pro has disrupted the Mini LED market. In the second quarter of 2024, OLED tablet shipments surged 356% quarter over quarter, with revenue growing over 1,000%. Meanwhile, Mini LED shipments for tablets nearly vanished, highlighting the rapid shift toward OLED dominance.
Apple's transition from Mini LED to OLED reflects OLED's competitive advantages in display quality and design. The self-emissive technology delivers superior contrast, deeper blacks, and a wider color gamut, enhancing the user experience. OLED panels are also thinner, lighter, and better suited for portable devices. As production costs decrease and supply chain reliability improves, OLED has become Apple's preferred option, according to Bloomberg and Nikkei Asia.
Market forecasts and Mini LED outlook
DSCC projects growth in Mini LED notebook shipments through 2025, followed by a decline starting in 2026, driven by Apple's potential launch of an OLED MacBook that year. While Mini LED is expected to see steady growth in TVs, monitors, and automotive displays, its rise may curb OLED's market expansion. Mini LED's penetration in automotive displays is forecast to reach 9.8% by 2026 and increase to 13.1% by 2028.
In the PC sector, AI applications are expected to boost demand for Mini LED notebooks and monitors. For example, in the second quarter of 2024, TCL and BenQ launched new Mini LED displays. TCL's 4K models support 27-inch and 34-inch formats with over 1,000 local dimming zones, while BenQ introduced a 32-inch 4K monitor featuring 1,152 dimming zones.
The Mini LED market's reliance on major clients like Apple poses significant risks. Strategic shifts or reduced demand from such key customers can disrupt supplier performance and weaken market positioning. To mitigate these risks, suppliers must diversify their clientele and expand into new application areas, such as automotive displays and public signage.
Manufacturers like Samsung, LG, and Asus are advancing Mini LED technology in TVs, monitors, and laptops, positioning themselves to fill the gap left by Apple's reduced demand. Mini LED's potential extends to automotive displays, medical equipment, and public signage, offering suppliers opportunities to diversify their portfolios and strengthen resilience, as noted by TechRadar and LEDinside.
Mini LED vs. OLED: Evolving market trends
Statista projects the global OLED market to reach approximately US$46 billion by 2025, reflecting continuous growth. While Mini LED also expands, its growth may slow due to strategic shifts by key clients like Apple. South Korean leaders Samsung Display (SDC) and LG Display (LGD) maintain their dominance through advanced technology and robust production capacity, ensuring a competitive edge in the OLED sector.
Chinese manufacturers BOE, Tianma, and TCL CSOT are reshaping the global OLED supply chain, challenging South Korean dominance through aggressive market expansion. Meanwhile, Taiwanese and Chinese suppliers like AUO, Innolux, and Epistar maintain strong positions in the Mini LED sector, leveraging advanced technology and production capabilities to meet growing demand.
However, as Apple may reduce its demand for Mini LED, these manufacturers must actively expand their customer base and explore new application areas to maintain their market position.
In 2024, Mini LED panels are expected to achieve a 2.3% market penetration, with shipments surpassing 19 million units. Yet, due to weak TV demand in the third quarter, Mini LED shipments are projected to decline slightly. Meanwhile, OLED shipments are forecast to grow by 22% year over year, driven by rising demand for tablets. Specifically, OLED tablet shipments are expected to increase by 221%, with revenue growth estimated at 584%.
Notably, DSCC forecasts that SDC's market share in the OLED sector will decline in 2024, measured by revenue. In contrast, the shares of TCL CSOT, LGD, Tianma Microelectronics, and Visionox are expected to rise, reflecting shifts in the competitive landscape.
The evolving competition between Mini LED and OLED technologies is driving manufacturers to reevaluate supply chains and strategies. To stay competitive, companies must invest in R&D, optimize costs, and explore new markets amid shifting industry dynamics.
