The competition for advanced logic processes at the 2-nanometer level will enter its production phase in 2025. Following their absence in the 5nm and 3nm generations, both Intel and Japanese foundry operator Rapidus are positioning themselves in a transformed landscape dominated by TSMC and Samsung Foundry.
From a customer perspective, TSMC's drive to mass-produce 2nm chips in 2025 aims to replicate its previous successes with 7nm, 5nm, and 3nm technologies. Industry sources indicate that beyond Apple, high-performance computing (HPC), artificial intelligence (AI) chipmakers, and mobile processor designers will join TSMC's client roster for 2nm technology.
According to sources, TSMC maintains a substantial lead over Intel and Samsung in securing 2nm chip orders. Several major companies, including AMD, Nvidia, MediaTek, and Qualcomm, have signaled their intent to place orders with TSMC. The automotive electronics sector may also present opportunities, with companies like NXP potentially adopting this technology in later phases.
Apple is poised to lead the adoption of TSMC's 3nm process. Reports indicate that in 2026, Apple's A20 chip, integrated into the iPhone 18, will utilize TSMC's 2nm manufacturing process. The performance of Apple's initial production run will likely influence other customers' decisions.
This market dynamic underscores the challenges faced by Samsung, Intel, and Rapidus in securing second-source customers, explaining Samsung's reportedly aggressive pursuit of orders from Qualcomm, AMD, and Nvidia.
Samsung achieved over 70% yield rates for its 4nm generation after four years of mass production, demonstrating progress in commercializing advanced manufacturing services.
However, for early adopters of advanced processes like Apple, AMD, and Qualcomm, Samsung's technological improvements may serve only as a backup option for second-source suppliers, effectively reducing them to bargaining chips rather than primary choices.
Despite yield rates improving within approximately three years, Samsung's self-developed Exynos smartphone processors are expected to incorporate its 3nm process only in the second half of 2025, suggesting Samsung's hesitation as an early adopter.
Meanwhile, the Japanese government is providing substantial funding to Rapidus, pursuing a collaborative vision between Japan and the US in semiconductor manufacturing, enabled by IBM's technology transfer for production in Japan.
Rapidus plans to focus on small-batch and customized orders without emphasizing profitability from commercial mass production. Should Rapidus establish itself as a reliable second-source supplier, it could significantly challenge Samsung's position.
Intel's interim co-CEO recently disclosed that the decision to split operations awaits the appointment of the new CEO. However, from a technical standpoint, Intel's 18A process, which focuses on training its products, offers competitive advantages in attracting customers seeking second-source suppliers.
The critical factor is that unlike Samsung Foundry, which has not disclosed its losses independently, Rapidus benefits from substantial government support for developing domestic foundries. On the other hand, Intel's foundry division remains under pressure, being under scrutiny for its financial losses.
