Apple's iPhone 16 series officially launched on September 20. While the initial inventory for telecom operators and retailers sold out instantly, the sustainability of this sales momentum remains a key indicator for market watchers.
Since the announcement of the iPhone 16 series, market opinions have been divided. Some analysts highlight the iPhone 16 as Apple's first product to integrate Apple Intelligence. Additionally, the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus both feature high-end processors while maintaining their previous price points, offering more value for money.
It's also been four years since the release of the first 5G iPhone, the iPhone 12, in 2020, so the upgrade cycle is expected to boost iPhone 16 series sales.
However, critics argue that while the iPhone 16 series supports Apple Intelligence, the feature is not yet available, and non-English versions won't be supported until 2025. Consequently, some consumers may prefer to wait for the iPhone 17 in 2025 rather than purchasing the iPhone 16 now.
Moreover, while the upgrades to the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus are noticeable, the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max, typically seen as the main sales drivers, are perceived as less innovative this time. Given that these high-end models make up a larger portion of shipment planning, this could impact overall sales performance.
On launch day, the iPhone 16 Pro and other high-end models remained the top choices for consumers, with the Pro Max model selling out first. However, supply chain sources believe it will take at least a week to determine whether this sales performance is driven by consumer excitement for the iPhone's entry into AI applications or simply due to Apple fans' enthusiasm.
Wait times: A key indicator
Retailers have noted that the supply situation in 2024 is similar to 2023, with the same distribution ratio across all models and no specific supply restrictions. According to Apple's Taiwan website, the current wait time for pre-orders of high-end models like the iPhone 16 Pro is around 3-4 weeks, while the iPhone 16 and 16 Plus have a wait time of about 2 weeks.
Compared to the iPhone 15 series in 2023, the shorter wait times for shipments are attributed to factors such as increased pre-launch stock, reduced consumer demand due to the delayed launch of Apple Intelligence, and a downturn in the Chinese market.
Supply chain insiders note that wait times can offer insights into market demand or supply chain stability. For instance, high market demand or supply issues will naturally lead to longer wait times.
In recent years, Apple has significantly increased automation in iPhone assembly. Apple COO Jeff Williams previously visited China to review the progress of automated production lines, demonstrating Apple's commitment to advancing automation in its production.
The increase in automation has effectively shortened wait times compared to previous years, meaning that while wait times are still a useful indicator, additional metrics should be considered for a comprehensive analysis.
Previous data shows that for non-new iPhone products already on the market, the time from order to delivery is usually no more than 120 hours (5 days). This suggests that overall market demand so far remains strong, as wait times are still over a week.
The changes in sales momentum over the coming weeks will determine the scale of the next round of orders. This can be observed by monitoring two indicators: retail sales and changes in wait times.
If more stock becomes available in retail locations or if wait times shorten significantly, it could indicate a negative trend. In contrast, if wait times remain long, it would suggest that consumer demand is still strong.
