At CES 2025, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated that Samsung Electronics (Samsung) must develop a "new design" to pass Nvidia's qualification, sparking discussions about whether Samsung can make a comeback with HBM3E in 2025. However, according to Chosun Biz, many industry insiders pointed out that if Samsung collaborates with Nvidia's competitor Broadcom, a different outcome may emerge.
Samsung was initially expected to begin supplying HBM3E before the end of 2024, but this plan has been delayed and remains unfulfilled. Whether Huang's statement indicates insufficient technical capability on Samsung's part or overly stringent specifications set by Nvidia has led to considerable debate.
Insiders stated that SK Hynix supplies Nvidia with HBM3E that significantly exceeds the standards set by the Joint Electron Device Engineering Council (JEDEC), as Nvidia's demands for power efficiency, data processing speed, and capacity continue to escalate.
Major tech companies like Google, Meta, and ByteDance recently commissioned Broadcom to develop AI chips, positioning Broadcom as a formidable competitor to Nvidia.
What are the odds of a collaboration between Samsung and Broadcom?
Considering its chip design process and business model, Broadcom would be more likely to choose a memory supplier capable of providing high cost-performance ratios and large-scale supply compared to Nvidia. This perspective increases the likelihood of Samsung signing a contract with Broadcom.
On the other hand, the initial defects encountered with Blackwell could serve as a growth catalyst for Broadcom's customized AI chips. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain regarding whether Broadcom can achieve the procurement scale comparable to Nvidia.
Nvidia accounts for approximately 90% of global HBM demand, their new product Blackwell also features a significant amount of high-performance HBM. After meeting Nvidia's requirements, SK Hynix's ability to supply additional major customers is limited, creating potential market opportunities for Samsung to mount a comeback.
However, there are also "contradictions" between Samsung and Broadcom. In July 2024, Yonhap News Agency reported that following an unequal contract signed with Samsung in 2023, Broadcom faced penalties from the Korea Fair Trade Commission. Subsequently, Samsung filed a lawsuit against Broadcom in the US for violating antitrust laws.
On July 1, 2024, Samsung submitted a complaint citing the "unequal contract" related to Galaxy smartphone chips with Broadcom. In late December 2024, reports emerged indicating that SK Hynix had secured HBM orders from Broadcom.
At CES 2025, Samsung showcased its sixth-generation high bandwidth memory (HBM4) to global customers. Although still in the development phase, Samsung's proactive promotion of HBM4 suggests that the company views this product as a key tool for revitalizing its market position.
Samsung reportedly presented the HBM3E and HBM4 simultaneously to customers. HBM3E was officially announced as completed in February 2024, while HBM4 is planned for mass production in the second half of 2025.
The South Korean industry generally believes that the success or failure of Samsung's HBM business may hinge on the performance of HBM4.